Pelle Larsson

Miami Heat · G · #9

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −2103 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 on the road).

at TOR, 2026-04-09: 0, missed, 32 min
at WSH, 2026-04-10: 1, cleared, 27 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-21: 1, cleared, 24 min
vs DET, 2026-10-23: 1, cleared, 29 min
at CHA, 2026-10-24: 1, cleared, 36 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-26: 3, cleared, 34 min
at ATL, 2026-10-28: 1, cleared, 31 min
vs IND, 2026-10-30: 0, missed, 24 min
at LAL, 2026-11-02: 1, cleared, 30 min
at LAC, 2026-11-04: 1, cleared, 35 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 steals.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs guards
GS allow 6.3 steals a game to guards: 2nd most of 30
8 games
TodayRest · back-to-back
Heat played the day before (at LAC): a back-to-back
3rd straight road game
Minutes
Last 5: 30.8 min · 2026–27: 30.4 (8 games)
Game lines
MIA +4.5 · total 236.5 (7 sportsbooks)
MIA's games this season closed at 236.9 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against GS in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 1 of 4 against GS on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Giannis AntetokounmpoF
Bam AdebayoC
Davion MitchellG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Heat count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs GS

Steals: 0 in 28 min, Jan 19 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against GS on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1; +0.5 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 68%; at −210
Books’ fair: 63%; margin removed
Our chance: 65%; estimate · fair −183

Research, not a pick. At −210 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −183, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	−2103 books	+1501 book	8/10
	+2153 books	—	1/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet3 min ago	−210Best	—
betPARX2 min ago	−210Best	+150Best
BetRivers2 min ago	−210Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:16 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: −225 → −210 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Rest−3%

Pelle Larsson's full game log and splits