Pelle Larsson

Miami Heat · G · #9

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under7.5

Under 7.5 Reb+Ast, typical price −1376 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Under 7.5 Reb+Ast hit in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

at TOR, 2026-04-09: 6, hit, 32 min
at WSH, 2026-04-10: 6, hit, 27 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-21: 7, hit, 24 min
vs DET, 2026-10-23: 3, hit, 29 min
at CHA, 2026-10-24: 11, missed, 36 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-26: 4, hit, 34 min
at ATL, 2026-10-28: 14, missed, 31 min
vs IND, 2026-10-30: 6, hit, 24 min
at LAL, 2026-11-02: 5, hit, 30 min
at LAC, 2026-11-04: 7, hit, 35 min

Under hitMissedThe 7.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 3.6–11 reb+ast.

What's different today

Under 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayRest · back-to-back
Heat played the day before (at LAC): a back-to-back
3rd straight road game
Minutes
Last 5: 30.8 min · 2026–27: 30.4 (8 games)
Game lines
MIA +3.5 · total 236.5 (9 sportsbooks)
MIA's games this season closed at 236.9 on average (8 games)
Pace · possessions a game · 8 games
GS 22nd, MIA 3rd of 30

Splits

Under 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against GS in his last 10; Under 7.5 hit in 3 of 4 against GS on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 7.5 · L10

Giannis AntetokounmpoF
Bam AdebayoC
Davion MitchellG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Heat count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs GS

Reb+Ast: 8 in 28 min, Jan 19 (away)

Under 7.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against GS on record

L10 · Under 7.5

Average: 6.9; −0.6 vs line
Median: 6; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −137
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −131

Research, not a pick. At −128 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −131, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5905 books	—	2/10
−2601 book	+1901 book	3/10
−1452 books	+1072 books	6/10
+1026 books	−1373 books	8/10
+2555 books	—	8/10
+7001 book	—	9/10
+17002 books	—	10/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 7.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 7.5	Under 7.5
FanDueljust now	+100	−128Best
betPARX1 min ago	+102	−137
Bovada3 min ago	+115	−150
Bally Bet4 min ago	+102	—
BetRivers1 min ago	+102	—
DraftKings4 min ago	+120Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:36 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

−102 → −137 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Rest−3%

Pelle Larsson's full game log and splits