Pelle Larsson

Miami Heat · G · #9

MIA @ LAC · Live

Over Under14.5

Over 14.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1303 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 14.5 Pts+Ast cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 on the road).

at TOR, 2026-04-07: 8, missed, 26 min
at TOR, 2026-04-09: 12, missed, 32 min
at WSH, 2026-04-10: 30, cleared, 27 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-21: 6, missed, 24 min
vs DET, 2026-10-23: 8, missed, 29 min
at CHA, 2026-10-24: 19, cleared, 36 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-26: 16, cleared, 34 min
at ATL, 2026-10-28: 25, cleared, 31 min
vs IND, 2026-10-30: 21, cleared, 24 min
at LAL, 2026-11-02: 11, missed, 30 min

ClearedMissedThe 14.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 7.5–25.1 pts+ast.

What's different yesterday

Over 14.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Minutes
Last 5: 31 min · 2025–26: 26.5 (70 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at LAL
Pace · possessions a game · 7 games
LAC 12th, MIA 3rd of 30
LAC injuries
Brandon Ingram (F, Out, 31.5 min); Jordan Miller (G, Out, 23.9 min); Bradley Beal (G, Out, 20.2 min)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10) · 1 more on the report

Splits

Over 14.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LAC in his last 10; Over 14.5 cleared in 0 of 3 against LAC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 14.5 · L10

Giannis AntetokounmpoF
Bam AdebayoC
Davion MitchellG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Heat count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs LAC

Pts+Ast: 7 in 8 min, Dec 1, 2025 (home)

Over 14.5 hit in 0 of 3 games against LAC on record

L10 · Over 14.5

Average: 15.6; +1.1 vs line
Median: 14; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −130
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −125 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −130, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−6402 books	—	7/10
−1651 book	+1251 book	5/10
−1303 books	−1052 books	5/10
−1013 books	−1351 book	5/10
+2552 books	—	3/10
+8301 book	—	2/10
+20001 book	—	1/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 14.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 14.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 14.5	Under 14.5
Bovada18 hr ago	−125Best	−105
Bally Bet18 hr ago	−130	—
DraftKings18 hr ago	−130	−101Best

Prices as of 10:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

14.5

15.5 → 14.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Pelle Larsson's full game log and splits

This page last updated 10:43 PM ET.