Pelle Larsson

Miami Heat · G · #9

MIA @ LAC · Live

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −2402 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

at TOR, 2026-04-07: 0, missed, 26 min
at TOR, 2026-04-09: 0, missed, 32 min
at WSH, 2026-04-10: 1, cleared, 27 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-21: 1, cleared, 24 min
vs DET, 2026-10-23: 1, cleared, 29 min
at CHA, 2026-10-24: 1, cleared, 36 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-26: 3, cleared, 34 min
at ATL, 2026-10-28: 1, cleared, 31 min
vs IND, 2026-10-30: 0, missed, 24 min
at LAL, 2026-11-02: 1, cleared, 30 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–2 steals.

What's different yesterday

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayDefense vs guards
LAC allow 6.6 steals a game to guards: the most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 31 min · 2025–26: 26.5 (70 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at LAL
Pace · possessions a game · 7 games
LAC 12th, MIA 3rd of 30

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LAC in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 2 of 3 against LAC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Giannis AntetokounmpoF
Bam AdebayoC
Davion MitchellG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Heat count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs LAC

Steals: 0 in 8 min, Dec 1, 2025 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against LAC on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 0.9; +0.4 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 71%; at −240
Books’ fair: 62%; margin removed
Our chance: 64%; estimate · fair −177

Research, not a pick. At −196 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −177, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2402 books	+1461 book	7/10
+1882 books	—	1/10
+5502 books	—	1/10
+19001 book	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings16 hr ago	−196Best	+146Best
Bally Bet16 hr ago	−240	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: −230 → −240 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Pelle Larsson's full game log and splits

This page last updated 10:43 PM ET.