Pelle Larsson

Miami Heat · G · #9

MIA @ LAC · Live

Over Under11.5

Over 11.5 Points, typical price −1045 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 11.5 Points cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 on the road).

at TOR, 2026-04-07: 7, missed, 26 min
at TOR, 2026-04-09: 10, missed, 32 min
at WSH, 2026-04-10: 24, cleared, 27 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-21: 2, missed, 24 min
vs DET, 2026-10-23: 7, missed, 29 min
at CHA, 2026-10-24: 15, cleared, 36 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-26: 12, cleared, 34 min
at ATL, 2026-10-28: 17, cleared, 31 min
vs IND, 2026-10-30: 18, cleared, 24 min
at LAL, 2026-11-02: 9, missed, 30 min

ClearedMissedThe 11.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

What's different on Wednesday

Over 11.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

WedDefense vs guards
LAC allow 69.3 points a game to guards: 3rd most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 31 min · 2025–26: 26.5 (70 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at LAL
Pace · possessions a game · 7 games
LAC 12th, MIA 3rd of 30

Splits

Over 11.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LAC in his last 10; Over 11.5 cleared in 0 of 3 against LAC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 11.5 · L10

Giannis AntetokounmpoF
Bam AdebayoC
Davion MitchellG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out on Wednesday. Only games they were teammates on the Heat count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs LAC

Points: 5 in 8 min, Dec 1, 2025 (home)

Over 11.5 hit in 0 of 3 games against LAC on record

L10 · Over 11.5

Average: 12.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 11; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −104
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Minutes: 29.3; 10 games · 26.5 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 11.5 48%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2752 books	+2001 book	7/10
−1923 books	+1451 book	6/10
−1451 book	+1101 book	5/10
−1045 books	−1253 books	5/10
+1252 books	−1651 book	4/10
+1653 books	−2201 book	4/10
+2102 books	−2901 book	4/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 11.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 11.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 11.5	Under 11.5
FanDuel31 hr ago	+102Best	—
Pinnacle31 hr ago	−103	−129
DraftKings31 hr ago	−104	−122Best
Bovada31 hr ago	−105	−125
Bally Bet31 hr ago	−113	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

11.5

−108 → −104 since first seen

Pelle Larsson's full game log and splits

This page last updated 10:43 PM ET.