Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Atlanta Hawks · G · #7

ATL @ WSH · Tomorrow 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −1732 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightDefense vs guards
WSH allow 5.4 threes made a game to guards: 29th most of 30
7 games
Teammate out
Jock Landale: Out (hip)
Over 2.5 without him: 10 of 13; with him: 18 of 29 (42 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 30.4 min · 2026–27: 30.1 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at IND
3rd straight road game

60%6 of 10L10

Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 on the road).

at NY, 2026-04-28: 4, cleared, 34 min
vs NY, 2026-04-30: 1, missed, 29 min
at ORL, 2026-10-21: 5, cleared, 30 min
at CHA, 2026-10-23: 2, missed, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-24: 4, cleared, 32 min
at HOU, 2026-10-26: 2, missed, 29 min
vs MIA, 2026-10-28: 5, cleared, 32 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-29: 4, cleared, 31 min
at NO, 2026-10-31: 0, missed, 29 min
at IND, 2026-11-02: 9, cleared, 31 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1–6 3-pointers made.

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Over 2.5 cleared in 2 of 5 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L10

Jalen JohnsonFDay-To-Day
CJ McCollumG
Aaron WigginsG
Jock LandaleCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Alexander-Walker didn't play the Feb 26 meeting; 3-pointers made the last time Alexander-Walker faced them: 3 (Feb 24)

Over 2.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against WSH on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 3.6; +1.1 vs line
Median: 4; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 63%; at −173
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 64%; estimate · fair −178

Research, not a pick. At −172 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −178, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−44462 books	—	9/10
−5682 books	—	8/10
−1732 books	+1311 book	6/10
+1402 books	−1941 book	6/10
+3232 books	—	3/10
+6702 books	—	1/10
+13002 books	—	1/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel4 min ago	−172Best	—
DraftKings15 min ago	−174	+131Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:05 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

3.5 → 2.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Nickeil Alexander-Walker's full game log and splits