Naji Marshall

Dallas Mavericks · F · #3

DAL @ SA · Tomorrow 9:30 PM

Over Under11.5

Over 11.5 Points, typical price −1012 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 11.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightBack from an absence
Tonight is his 2nd game back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 26 – Oct 30)
Over 11.5 since: 0 of 1
Teammate out
Max Christie: Out (hip)
Over 11.5 without him: 5 of 5; with him: 45 of 73 (78 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Over 11.5 without him: 47 of 71; with him: 3 of 7 (78 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
SA allow 39.3 points a game to forwards: 23rd most of 30
7 games

60%6 of 10L10

Over 11.5 Points cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

vs GS, 2026-03-23: 16, cleared, 35 min
at DEN, 2026-03-25: 22, cleared, 30 min
at POR, 2026-03-27: 19, cleared, 33 min
vs ORL, 2026-04-03: 9, missed, 24 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-05: 13, cleared, 32 min
at LAC, 2026-04-07: 6, missed, 20 min
at HOU, 2026-10-21: 16, cleared, 29 min
at IND, 2026-10-23: 15, cleared, 33 min
vs SA, 2026-10-24: 10, missed, 21 min
vs SAC, 2026-11-02: 5, missed, 24 min

ClearedMissedThe 11.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Splits

Over 11.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 11.5 · L10

Cooper FlaggF
Kyrie IrvingG
P.J. WashingtonF
Max ChristieGOut
Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SA

Points: 10 in 21 min, Oct 24 (home)

Over 11.5 hit in 3 of 11 games against SA on record

L10 · Over 11.5

Average: 13.1; +1.6 vs line
Median: 14; +2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 50%; at −101
Books’ fair: 47%; margin removed
Minutes: 28.1; 10 games · 29.5 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 11.5 47%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−8301 book	—	9/10
−3431 book	—	8/10
−1812 books	—	7/10
−1012 books	−1282 books	6/10
+2242 books	—	5/10
+4491 book	—	2/10
+7642 books	—	1/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 11.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 11.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 11.5	Under 11.5
FanDueljust now	+100Best	−132
DraftKings11 min ago	−102	−125Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:49 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

11.5

−106 → −101 since first seen

Naji Marshall's full game log and splits