Marcus Smart

Houston Rockets · G · #36

MIN @ HOU · Today 8:30 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −2053 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

100%10 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 10 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 at home).

at HOU, 2026-05-01: 2, cleared, 35 min
at OKC, 2026-05-05: 4, cleared, 32 min
at OKC, 2026-05-07: 1, cleared, 34 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-09: 1, cleared, 32 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-11: 2, cleared, 36 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-21: 1, cleared, 26 min
at SA, 2026-10-23: 1, cleared, 21 min
at DAL, 2026-10-30: 3, cleared, 17 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-31: 1, cleared, 36 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-02: 2, cleared, 20 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 steals.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Steven Adams: Out (calf)
Over 0.5 without him: 4 of 4; with him: 1 of 1 (5 games as teammates)
New team
5 games with HOU; before that, LAL
Over 0.5 with HOU: 5 of 5; his last 10 games before: 9 of 10
Back from an absence
Today's game is his 4th back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 24 – Oct 28)
Over 0.5 since: 3 of 3
Defense vs guards
MIN allow 4.0 steals a game to guards: 16th most of 30
8 games

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 2 of 2 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Kevin DurantF
Alperen SengunC
Amen ThompsonG
Steven AdamsCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Rockets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Smart didn't play the Apr 10 meeting; steals the last time Smart faced them: 2 (Mar 10)

Over 0.5 hit in 2 of 2 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.8; +1.3 vs line
Median: 1.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 100%; 10 of 10
Price implies: 67%; at −205
Books’ fair: 62%; margin removed
Our chance: 71%; estimate · fair −240

Research, not a pick. At −205 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −240, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	−2053 books	+1451 book	10/10
	+2053 books	—	5/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet1 min ago	−205Best	—
betPARX1 min ago	−205Best	+145Best
BetRiversjust now	−205Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:55 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

1.5 → 0.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Marcus Smart's full game log and splits