Marcus Smart

Houston Rockets · G · #36

MIN @ HOU · Today 8:30 PM

Over Under12.5

Over 12.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, typical price −1042 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 12.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Steven Adams: Out (calf)
Over 12.5 without him: 4 of 4; with him: 0 of 1 (5 games as teammates)
New team
5 games with HOU; before that, LAL
Over 12.5 with HOU: 4 of 5; his last 10 games before: 9 of 10
Back from an absence
Today's game is his 4th back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 24 – Oct 28)
Over 12.5 since: 3 of 3
Defense vs guards
MIN allow 91.4 points + rebounds + assists a game to guards: 12th most of 30
8 games

80%8 of 10L10

Over 12.5 Pts+Reb+Ast cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

at HOU, 2026-05-01: 15, cleared, 35 min
at OKC, 2026-05-05: 23, cleared, 32 min
at OKC, 2026-05-07: 23, cleared, 34 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-09: 16, cleared, 32 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-11: 10, missed, 36 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-21: 14, cleared, 26 min
at SA, 2026-10-23: 9, missed, 21 min
at DAL, 2026-10-30: 14, cleared, 17 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-31: 32, cleared, 36 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-02: 16, cleared, 20 min

ClearedMissedThe 12.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 8.2–27.1 pts+reb+ast.

Splits

Over 12.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 12.5 cleared in 0 of 2 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 12.5 · L10

Kevin DurantF
Alperen SengunC
Amen ThompsonG
Steven AdamsCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Rockets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Smart didn't play the Apr 10 meeting; pts+reb+ast the last time Smart faced them: 11 (Mar 10)

Over 12.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 12.5

Average: 17.2; +4.7 vs line
Median: 15.5; +3 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −104
Books’ fair: 47%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −154

Research, not a pick. At +100 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −154, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−26001 book	—	10/10
−2541 book	—	9/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	8/10
−1042 books	−1322 books	8/10
+1621 book	—	6/10
+5241 book	—	3/10
+14601 book	—	1/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 12.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 12.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 12.5	Under 12.5
FanDuel3 min ago	+100Best	−132
DraftKings7 min ago	−104	−127Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:29 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

12.5

−108 → −104 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Marcus Smart's full game log and splits