Marcus Smart

Houston Rockets · G · #36

MIN @ HOU · Tomorrow 8:30 PM

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Reb+Ast, typical price −1352 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Steven Adams: Out (calf)
Over 4.5 without him: 3 of 4; with him: 0 of 1 (5 games as teammates)
New team
5 games with HOU; before that, LAL
Over 4.5 with HOU: 3 of 5; his last 10 games before: 10 of 10
Back from an absence
Tonight is his 4th game back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 24 – Oct 28)
Over 4.5 since: 3 of 3
Minutes
Last 5: 24 min · 2025–26: 29.4 (72 games)

80%8 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Reb+Ast cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

at HOU, 2026-05-01: 8, cleared, 35 min
at OKC, 2026-05-05: 11, cleared, 32 min
at OKC, 2026-05-07: 9, cleared, 34 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-09: 6, cleared, 32 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-11: 5, cleared, 36 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-21: 4, missed, 26 min
at SA, 2026-10-23: 4, missed, 21 min
at DAL, 2026-10-30: 6, cleared, 17 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-31: 8, cleared, 36 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-02: 8, cleared, 20 min

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 3.3–11 reb+ast.

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 4.5 cleared in 0 of 2 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 4.5 · L10

Kevin DurantF
Alperen SengunC
Amen ThompsonG
Steven AdamsCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Rockets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Smart didn't play the Apr 10 meeting; reb+ast the last time Smart faced them: 3 (Mar 10)

Over 4.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average: 6.9; +2.4 vs line
Median: 7; +2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −135
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 65%; estimate · fair −185

Research, not a pick. At −132 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −185, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	−1352 books	+1022 books	8/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
DraftKings14 min ago	−132Best	+100
FanDuel3 min ago	−138	+104Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:25 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Over −138 → −135 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Marcus Smart's full game log and splits