Marcus Smart

Houston Rockets · G · #36

MIN @ HOU · Tomorrow 8:30 PM

Over Under7.5

Over 7.5 Points, typical price +1002 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Steven Adams: Out (calf)
Over 7.5 without him: 4 of 4; with him: 0 of 1 (5 games as teammates)
New team
5 games with HOU; before that, LAL
Over 7.5 with HOU: 4 of 5; his last 10 games before: 8 of 10
Back from an absence
Tonight is his 4th game back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 24 – Oct 28)
Over 7.5 since: 3 of 3
Defense vs guards
MIN allow 56.0 points a game to guards: 15th most of 30
8 games

70%7 of 10L10

Over 7.5 Points cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

at HOU, 2026-05-01: 7, missed, 35 min
at OKC, 2026-05-05: 12, cleared, 32 min
at OKC, 2026-05-07: 14, cleared, 34 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-09: 10, cleared, 32 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-11: 5, missed, 36 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-21: 10, cleared, 26 min
at SA, 2026-10-23: 5, missed, 21 min
at DAL, 2026-10-30: 8, cleared, 17 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-31: 24, cleared, 36 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-02: 8, cleared, 20 min

ClearedMissedThe 7.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 2.9–18.3 points.

Splits

Over 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 7.5 cleared in 1 of 2 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 7.5 · L10

Kevin DurantF
Alperen SengunC
Amen ThompsonG
Steven AdamsCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Rockets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Smart didn't play the Apr 10 meeting; points the last time Smart faced them: 8 (Mar 10)

Over 7.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 7.5

Average: 10.3; +2.8 vs line
Median: 9; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 50%; at +100
Books’ fair: 47%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −140

Research, not a pick. At +102 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −140, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3201 book	—	10/10
−2001 book	—	8/10
+1002 books	−1302 books	7/10
+1912 books	—	5/10
+3201 book	—	3/10
+8072 books	—	1/10
+15601 book	—	1/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 7.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 7.5	Under 7.5
FanDuel2 min ago	+102Best	−136
DraftKings13 min ago	−102	−124Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:25 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

Over −102 → +100 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Marcus Smart's full game log and splits