Marcus Smart

Houston Rockets · G · #36

MIN @ HOU · Today 8:30 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Assists, typical price +1122 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Steven Adams: Out (calf)
Over 2.5 without him: 3 of 4; with him: 0 of 1 (5 games as teammates)
New team
5 games with HOU; before that, LAL
Over 2.5 with HOU: 3 of 5; his last 10 games before: 8 of 10
Back from an absence
Today's game is his 4th back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 24 – Oct 28)
Over 2.5 since: 3 of 3
Defense vs guards
MIN allow 15.6 assists a game to guards: 16th most of 30
8 games

70%7 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Assists cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

at HOU, 2026-05-01: 1, missed, 35 min
at OKC, 2026-05-05: 7, cleared, 32 min
at OKC, 2026-05-07: 5, cleared, 34 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-09: 3, cleared, 32 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-11: 3, cleared, 36 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-21: 2, missed, 26 min
at SA, 2026-10-23: 1, missed, 21 min
at DAL, 2026-10-30: 4, cleared, 17 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 36 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-02: 4, cleared, 20 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2–7 assists.

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 2.5 cleared in 0 of 2 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L10

Kevin DurantF
Alperen SengunC
Amen ThompsonG
Steven AdamsCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Rockets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Smart didn't play the Apr 10 meeting; assists the last time Smart faced them: 1 (Mar 10)

Over 2.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 3.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 47%; at +112
Books’ fair: 43%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −137

Research, not a pick. At +122 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −137, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2651 book	—	8/10
+1122 books	−1612 books	7/10
+2652 books	—	4/10
+6501 book	—	2/10
+10602 books	—	1/10
+24001 book	—	1/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings6 min ago	+122Best	−161
FanDuel1 min ago	+112	−148Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:34 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over +114 → +112 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Marcus Smart's full game log and splits