Marcus Smart

Houston Rockets · G · #36

MIN @ HOU · Today 8:30 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −1804 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Steven Adams: Out (calf)
Under 1.5 without him: 1 of 4; with him: 1 of 1 (5 games as teammates)
New team
5 games with HOU; before that, LAL
Under 1.5 with HOU: 2 of 5; his last 10 games before: 5 of 10
Back from an absence
Today's game is his 4th back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 24 – Oct 28)
Under 1.5 since: 1 of 3
Defense vs guards
MIN allow 7.0 threes made a game to guards: 21st most of 30
8 games

50%5 of 10L10

Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

at HOU, 2026-05-01: 2, missed, 35 min
at OKC, 2026-05-05: 2, missed, 32 min
at OKC, 2026-05-07: 1, hit, 34 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-09: 1, hit, 32 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-11: 0, hit, 36 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-21: 2, missed, 26 min
at SA, 2026-10-23: 0, hit, 21 min
at DAL, 2026-10-30: 0, hit, 17 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-31: 7, missed, 36 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-02: 2, missed, 20 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 3-pointers made.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 2 of 2 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Kevin DurantF
Alperen SengunC
Amen ThompsonG
Steven AdamsCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Rockets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Smart didn't play the Apr 10 meeting; 3-pointers made the last time Smart faced them: 1 (Mar 10)

Under 1.5 hit in 2 of 2 games against MIN on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −180
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −133

Research, not a pick. At −178 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −133, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3403 books	—	3/10
+1324 books	−1804 books	5/10
+4003 books	—	9/10
+10403 books	—	9/10
+22002 books	—	9/10
+40001 book	—	9/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel3 min ago	+132	−178Best
Pinnacle12 min ago	+132	−178Best
Bovada12 min ago	+135	−180
DraftKings12 min ago	+139Best	−184
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:57 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under: −178 → −180 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Marcus Smart's full game log and splits