LeBron James

Philadelphia 76ers · F · #23

PHI @ DET · Tomorrow 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −2092 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Dominick Barlow: Out (back)
Under 1.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
New team
6 games with PHI; before that, LAL
Under 1.5 with PHI: 4 of 6; his last 10 games before: 6 of 10
Defense vs forwards
DET allow 4.0 steals a game to forwards: 5th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 32.8 min · 2025–26: 33.9 (70 games)

70%7 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

at OKC, 2026-05-05: 1, hit, 36 min
at OKC, 2026-05-07: 3, missed, 38 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-09: 1, hit, 37 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-11: 0, hit, 40 min
at NY, 2026-10-20: 1, hit, 34 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-22: 3, missed, 33 min
vs DET, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 33 min
at IND, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 33 min
vs NY, 2026-10-30: 1, hit, 34 min
vs CHI, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 31 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 steals.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Tyrese MaxeyG
Joel EmbiidC
Jaylen BrownG
Dominick BarlowFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the 76ers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DET

Steals: 2 in 33 min, Oct 25 (home)

Under 1.5 hit in 4 of 6 games against DET on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 68%; at −209
Books’ fair: 63%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −159

Research, not a pick. At −200 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −159, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3032 books	—	1/10
+1552 books	−2092 books	7/10
+4962 books	—	8/10
+12752 books	—	10/10
+25001 book	—	10/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel4 min ago	+148	−200Best
DraftKings9 min ago	+162Best	−218
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:54 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under −205 → −209 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

LeBron James's full game log and splits