LeBron James

Philadelphia 76ers · F · #23

PHI @ DET · Tomorrow 7:00 PM

Over Under14.5

Over 14.5 Points, typical price −1206 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 14.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Dominick Barlow: Out (back)
Over 14.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
New team
6 games with PHI; before that, LAL
Over 14.5 with PHI: 4 of 6; his last 10 games before: 9 of 10
Defense vs forwards
DET allow 41.1 points a game to forwards: 19th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 32.8 min · 2025–26: 33.9 (70 games)

80%8 of 10L10

Over 14.5 Points cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).

at OKC, 2026-05-05: 27, cleared, 36 min
at OKC, 2026-05-07: 23, cleared, 38 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-09: 19, cleared, 37 min
vs OKC, 2026-05-11: 24, cleared, 40 min
at NY, 2026-10-20: 14, missed, 34 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-22: 17, cleared, 33 min
vs DET, 2026-10-25: 18, cleared, 33 min
at IND, 2026-10-28: 13, missed, 33 min
vs NY, 2026-10-30: 20, cleared, 34 min
vs CHI, 2026-11-02: 15, cleared, 31 min

ClearedMissedThe 14.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 11.9–27.2 points.

Splits

Over 14.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 14.5 · L10

Tyrese MaxeyG
Joel EmbiidC
Jaylen BrownG
Dominick BarlowFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the 76ers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DET

Points: 18 in 33 min, Oct 25 (home)

Over 14.5 hit in 5 of 6 games against DET on record

L10 · Over 14.5

Average: 19; +4.5 vs line
Median: 18.5; +4 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −120
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −174

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −174, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2504 books	—	10/10
−2201 book	+1651 book	10/10
−1484 books	+1251 book	9/10
−1206 books	−1055 books	8/10
+1124 books	−1351 book	7/10
+1301 book	−1701 book	7/10
+1805 books	−2201 book	6/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 14.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 14.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 14.5	Under 14.5
Bally Bet1 min ago	−114Best	—
betPARX2 min ago	−114Best	−117
BetRivers3 min ago	−115	−118
Bovada1 min ago	−125	−105
DraftKings4 min ago	−125	−102
FanDuel1 min ago	−136	+102Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:17 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

14.5

Over −130 → −120 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

LeBron James's full game log and splits