Kyrie Irving

Dallas Mavericks · G · #11

UTAH @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under21.5

Under 21.5 Points, typical price −1205 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Under 21.5 Points hit in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

at LAL, 2025-02-25: 35, missed, 40 min
vs CHA, 2025-02-27: 25, missed, 38 min
vs MIL, 2025-03-01: 31, missed, 38 min
vs SAC, 2025-03-03: 7, hit, 9 min
at HOU, 2026-10-21: 15, hit, 24 min
at IND, 2026-10-23: 24, missed, 25 min
at MIA, 2026-10-26: 18, hit, 33 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-28: 15, hit, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-30: 35, missed, 35 min
at SA, 2026-11-04: 29, missed, 36 min

Under hitMissedThe 21.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 8.6–29.6 points.

What's different today

Under 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Under 21.5 without him: 3 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
UTAH allow 56.5 points a game to guards: 14th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 31.2 min · 2024–25: 36 (50 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at SA

Splits

Under 21.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against UTAH in his last 10; Under 21.5 hit in 2 of 6 against UTAH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 21.5 · L10

Cooper FlaggF
Naji MarshallF
P.J. WashingtonF
Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Irving didn't play the Jan 17 meeting; points the last time Irving faced them: 30 (Nov 30, 2024)

Under 21.5 hit in 2 of 6 games against UTAH on record

L10 · Under 21.5

Average: 23.4; +1.9 vs line
Median: 24.5; +3 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −120
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −111

Research, not a pick. At −103 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −111, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2501 book	+1851 book	4/10
−1856 books	+1501 book	4/10
−1601 book	+1201 book	4/10
−1135 books	−1204 books	4/10
+1003 books	−1323 books	4/10
+1284 books	−1601 book	4/10
+1503 books	−2001 book	5/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 21.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 21.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 21.5	Under 21.5
DraftKings11 min ago	−123	−103Best
Bovada11 min ago	−125	−105
betPARX5 min ago	−112Best	−120
BetRivers3 min ago	−113	−121
Bally Bet11 min ago	−112Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:47 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

21.5

Under: −136 → −120 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Kyrie Irving's full game log and splits