Kris Dunn

LA Clippers · G · #8

MIA @ LAC · Today 10:30 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Steals, typical price −1542 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs guards
MIA allow 3.1 steals a game to guards: 28th most of 30
7 games
Teammate out
Jordan Miller: Out (shoulder)
Over 1.5 without him: 13 of 20; with him: 27 of 60 (80 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Bradley Beal: Out (knee)
Over 1.5 without him: 41 of 83; with him: 4 of 6 (89 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 29.6 min · 2025–26: 27.2 (82 games)

60%6 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Steals cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

vs OKC, 2026-04-08: 0, missed, 27 min
at POR, 2026-04-10: 0, missed, 27 min
vs GS, 2026-04-12: 2, cleared, 22 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-21: 3, cleared, 27 min
at LAL, 2026-10-23: 2, cleared, 34 min
at OKC, 2026-10-25: 5, cleared, 33 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-28: 1, missed, 27 min
at MIN, 2026-10-30: 0, missed, 31 min
at GS, 2026-11-01: 7, cleared, 27 min
vs TOR, 2026-11-02: 2, cleared, 30 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–4 steals.

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 2 of 5 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Darius GarlandG
Rui HachimuraF
Keaton WaglerG
Jordan MillerGOut
Bradley BealGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Clippers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Steals: 1 in 26 min, Dec 1, 2025 (away)

Over 1.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against MIA on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.2; +0.7 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −154
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −169

Research, not a pick. At −148 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −169, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−8002 books	—	7/10
−1542 books	+1122 books	6/10
+1962 books	—	3/10
+4972 books	—	2/10
+11202 books	—	2/10
+21001 book	—	1/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings4 min ago	−148Best	+112
FanDuel4 min ago	−154	+116Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:34 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over −172 → −154 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Kris Dunn's full game log and splits