Kris Dunn

LA Clippers · G · #8

MIA @ LAC · Tomorrow 10:30 PM

Over Under4.5

Under 4.5 Rebounds, typical price −1521 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightDefense vs guards
MIA allow 18.3 rebounds a game to guards: 3rd most of 30
7 games
Teammate out
Jordan Miller: Out (shoulder)
Under 4.5 without him: 15 of 20; with him: 40 of 60 (80 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Bradley Beal: Out (knee)
Under 4.5 without him: 57 of 83; with him: 5 of 6 (89 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 29.6 min · 2025–26: 27.2 (82 games)

70%7 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Rebounds hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

vs OKC, 2026-04-08: 1, hit, 27 min
at POR, 2026-04-10: 5, missed, 27 min
vs GS, 2026-04-12: 1, hit, 22 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-21: 5, missed, 27 min
at LAL, 2026-10-23: 4, hit, 34 min
at OKC, 2026-10-25: 4, hit, 33 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-28: 3, hit, 27 min
at MIN, 2026-10-30: 5, missed, 31 min
at GS, 2026-11-01: 2, hit, 27 min
vs TOR, 2026-11-02: 4, hit, 30 min

Under hitMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0.5–7.2 rebounds.

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 10; Under 4.5 hit in 5 of 5 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 4.5 · L10

Darius GarlandG
Rui HachimuraF
Keaton WaglerG
Jordan MillerGOut
Bradley BealGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Clippers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Rebounds: 4 in 26 min, Dec 1, 2025 (away)

Under 4.5 hit in 5 of 5 games against MIA on record

L10 · Under 4.5

Average: 3.4; −1.1 vs line
Median: 4; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 60%; at −152
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −145

Research, not a pick. At −152 the price is worse than our fair −145, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2001 book	—	4/10
+1141 book	−1521 book	7/10
+2301 book	—	10/10
+8001 book	—	10/10
+17001 book	—	10/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
FanDuel1 min ago	+114Best	−152Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:34 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

−154 → −152 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Kris Dunn's full game log and splits