John Collins

Detroit Pistons · F · #20

PHI @ DET · Tomorrow 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −2104 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
Jalen Duren: Out (hamstring)
Over 0.5 without him: 1 of 5; with him: 1 of 2 (7 games as teammates)
New team
7 games with DET; before that, LAC
Over 0.5 with DET: 2 of 7; his last 10 games before: 5 of 10
Defense vs forwards
PHI allow 3.4 threes made a game to forwards: 26th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 24.8 min · 2025–26: 27.1 (69 games)

20%1 of 5L20 · Without Duren

Over 0.5 3-Pointers Made cleared in 1 of 5 games without Jalen Duren (his last 20 games).

at NO, 2026-03-18: 0, missed, 24 min (not counted)
at NO, 2026-03-19: 3, cleared, 28 min (not counted)
at DAL, 2026-03-21: 1, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-03-25: 0, missed, 22 min (not counted)
at IND, 2026-03-27: 1, cleared, 20 min (not counted)
at MIL, 2026-03-29: 0, missed, 35 min (not counted)
vs POR, 2026-03-31: 3, cleared, 31 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-04-02: 0, missed, 25 min (not counted)
at SAC, 2026-04-05: 4, cleared, 24 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-04-07: 1, cleared, 28 min (not counted)
vs OKC, 2026-04-08: 1, cleared, 27 min (not counted)
at POR, 2026-04-10: 0, missed, 13 min (not counted)
vs GS, 2026-04-12: 0, missed, 21 min (not counted)
vs BOS, 2026-10-20: 0, missed, 25 min (not counted)
at MIA, 2026-10-23: 5, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-10-25: 2, cleared, 34 min
at NY, 2026-10-27: 0, missed, 27 min
vs CHA, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 18 min
at BKN, 2026-10-30: 0, missed, 26 min
at CHA, 2026-11-02: 0, missed, 19 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–2 3-pointers made.

Splits

Over 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L20

Cade CunninghamG
Jalen DurenCOut
Duncan RobinsonF

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Pistons count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHI

3-Pointers Made: 2 in 34 min, Oct 25 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 3 of 5 games against PHI on record

L20 · Without Duren · Over 0.5

Average: 0.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 20%; 1 of 5
Price implies: 68%; at −210
Books’ fair: 63%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −150

Research, not a pick. At −200 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −150, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Duren

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−2104 books	+1552 books	1/5
+2154 books	—	1/5
+8301 book	—	0/5

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−200Best	—
Bally Bet3 min ago	−210	—
betPARX2 min ago	−210	+155Best
BetRivers2 min ago	−215	+155Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:59 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

John Collins's full game log and splits