John Collins
PHI @ DET · Tomorrow 7:00 PM
What's different tonight
Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTonightTeammate out
Jalen Duren: Out (hamstring)
Over 5.5 without him: 3 of 5; with him: 1 of 2 (7 games as teammates)
New team
7 games with DET; before that, LAC
Over 5.5 with DET: 4 of 7; his last 10 games before: 6 of 10
Defense vs forwards
PHI allow 18.8 rebounds a game to forwards: 15th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 24.8 min · 2025–26: 27.1 (69 games)
Game log against Over 5.5
60%3 of 5L20 · Without Duren
Over 5.5 Rebounds cleared in 3 of 5 games without Jalen Duren (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 2.6–9.8 rebounds.
Splits
Over 5.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 5.5 · L20Cade CunninghamG
Jalen DurenCOut
Duncan RobinsonF
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Pistons count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs PHI
Rebounds: 11 in 34 min, Oct 25 (away)
Over 5.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against PHI on record
L20 · Without Duren · Over 5.5
- Average
- 6.8
- +1.3 vs line
- Median
- 9
- +3.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 3 of 5
- Price implies
- 59%
- at −146
- Books’ fair
- 55%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 58%
- estimate · fair −136
Research, not a pick. At −137 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −136, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L20 · Without Duren| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −35022 books | — | 4/5 | |
| −5605 books | — | 3/5 | |
| −3262 books | — | 3/5 | |
| −1466 books | +1023 books | 3/5 | |
| +1103 books | −1453 books | 3/5 | |
| +2056 books | −2601 book | 3/5 | |
| +2991 book | — | 3/5 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 5.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 5.5 | Under 5.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet5 min ago | −137Best | — |
| betPARX6 min ago | −137Best | +102 |
| BetRivers7 min ago | −137Best | +102 |
| FanDuel7 min ago | −156 | — |
| DraftKings10 min ago | −164 | — |
| Bovada5 min ago | −165 | +125Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:54 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
5.5−139 → −146 since first seen