Jeremiah Fears

New Orleans Pelicans · G · #0

UTAH @ NO · Live

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −2472 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

29%2 of 7L20 · Without Murphy

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 2 of 7 games without Trey Murphy III (his last 20 games).

vs LAC, 2026-03-18: 0, hit, 18 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-03-19: 2, missed, 24 min (not counted)
vs CLE, 2026-03-21: 0, hit, 18 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-03-24: 2, missed, 20 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-03-26: 1, hit, 27 min
at TOR, 2026-03-27: 0, hit, 28 min
vs HOU, 2026-03-29: 2, missed, 22 min
at POR, 2026-04-02: 2, missed, 26 min (not counted)
at SAC, 2026-04-03: 0, hit, 37 min (not counted)
vs ORL, 2026-04-05: 2, missed, 37 min
vs UTAH, 2026-04-07: 3, missed, 38 min
at BOS, 2026-04-10: 3, missed, 44 min
at MIN, 2026-04-12: 2, missed, 41 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 0, hit, 21 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 1, hit, 24 min (not counted)
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 1, hit, 23 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 24 min (not counted)
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 29 min (not counted)
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 1, hit, 31 min (not counted)
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 38 min (not counted)

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different yesterday

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Trey Murphy III: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 9 of 16; with him: 49 of 73 (89 games as teammates)
YesterdayDefense vs guards
UTAH allow 6.0 steals a game to guards: 3rd most of 30
7 games
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 12 of 21; with him: 46 of 68 (89 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 29 min · 2025–26: 25.7 (82 games)

Splits

Under 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L20

Dejounte MurrayG
Trey Murphy IIIFOut
Zion WilliamsonF
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Steals: 1 in 24 min, Oct 23 (away)

Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against UTAH on record

L20 · Without Murphy · Under 1.5

Average: 1.9; +0.4 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 29%; 2 of 7
Price implies: 71%; at −247
Books’ fair: 67%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −164

Research, not a pick. At −247 the price is worse than our fair −164, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Murphy

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−2952 books	—	1/7
+1502 books	−2471 book	2/7
+4402 books	—	5/7
+15801 book	—	7/7

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings14 hr ago	+182Best	−247Best
Bally Bet14 hr ago	+150	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under isn't priced at 1.5 right now.

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Jeremiah Fears's full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:13 PM ET.