Jeremiah Fears

New Orleans Pelicans · G · #0

UTAH @ NO · Live

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Assists, typical price −1493 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

86%6 of 7L20 · Without Murphy

Over 3.5 Assists cleared in 6 of 7 games without Trey Murphy III (his last 20 games).

vs LAC, 2026-03-18: 3, missed, 18 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-03-19: 2, missed, 24 min (not counted)
vs CLE, 2026-03-21: 3, missed, 18 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-03-24: 3, missed, 20 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-03-26: 6, cleared, 27 min
at TOR, 2026-03-27: 3, missed, 28 min
vs HOU, 2026-03-29: 5, cleared, 22 min
at POR, 2026-04-02: 1, missed, 26 min (not counted)
at SAC, 2026-04-03: 6, cleared, 37 min (not counted)
vs ORL, 2026-04-05: 7, cleared, 37 min
vs UTAH, 2026-04-07: 6, cleared, 38 min
at BOS, 2026-04-10: 6, cleared, 44 min
at MIN, 2026-04-12: 5, cleared, 41 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 1, missed, 21 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 1, missed, 24 min (not counted)
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 2, missed, 23 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 3, missed, 24 min (not counted)
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 13, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 7, cleared, 31 min (not counted)
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 7, cleared, 38 min (not counted)

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 2–8 assists.

What's different yesterday

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

All 3 of his last 3 came with Trey Murphy III playing; Murphy is out yesterday. Without him: Over 3.5 in 12 of 16.

YesterdayTeammate out
Trey Murphy III: Out (knee)
Over 3.5 without him: 12 of 16; with him: 30 of 73 (89 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 3.5 without him: 14 of 21; with him: 28 of 68 (89 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
UTAH allow 15.0 assists a game to guards: 19th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 29 min · 2025–26: 25.7 (82 games)

Splits

Over 3.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 3.5 · L20

Dejounte MurrayG
Trey Murphy IIIFOut
Zion WilliamsonF
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Assists: 1 in 24 min, Oct 23 (away)

Over 3.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against UTAH on record

L20 · Without Murphy · Over 3.5

Average: 5.4; +1.9 vs line
Median: 6; +2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 86%; 6 of 7
Price implies: 60%; at −149
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −160

Research, not a pick. At −148 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −160, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Murphy

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−12501 book	—	7/7
−3753 books	—	7/7
−1493 books	+1132 books	6/7
+1374 books	−1901 book	6/7
+2662 books	—	4/7
+5003 books	—	1/7
+8502 books	—	0/7

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
Bally Bet14 hr ago	−148Best	—
DraftKings14 hr ago	−149	+113
Bovada14 hr ago	−150	+115Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Over: −113 → −149 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Jeremiah Fears's full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:13 PM ET.