Jeremiah Fears

New Orleans Pelicans · G · #0

MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under18.5

Over 18.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1034 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 18.5 Pts+Ast cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at BOS, 2026-04-10: 42, cleared, 44 min
at MIN, 2026-04-12: 41, cleared, 41 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 9, missed, 21 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 8, missed, 24 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 12, missed, 23 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 14, missed, 24 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 35, cleared, 29 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 27, cleared, 31 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 19, cleared, 38 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-04: 21, cleared, 34 min

ClearedMissedThe 18.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 11–36.9 pts+ast.

What's different today

Over 18.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 18.5 without him: 12 of 22; with him: 29 of 68 (90 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 31.2 min · 2026–27: 28 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH
Game lines
NO +4.5 · total 230.5 (7 sportsbooks)
NO's games this season closed at 236.9 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 18.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 18.5 · L10

Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Trey Murphy IIIFDay-To-Day
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Pts+Ast: 41 in 41 min, Apr 12 (away)

Over 18.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 18.5

Average: 22.8; +4.3 vs line
Median: 20; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −103
Books’ fair: 47%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −135

Research, not a pick. At −103 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −135, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−15001 book	—	8/10
−2654 books	—	6/10
−1251 book	−1051 book	6/10
−1034 books	−1322 books	6/10
+1204 books	—	5/10
+3254 books	—	4/10
+9901 book	—	3/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 18.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 18.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 18.5	Under 18.5
Bally Bet9 min ago	−103Best	—
betPARX5 min ago	−103Best	−132
BetRivers5 min ago	−103Best	—
FanDuel2 min ago	−104	−128Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:21 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

18.5

−104 → −103 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Jeremiah Fears's full game log and splits