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Jared McCain

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · #3

CLE @ OKC · Tomorrow 8:00 PM
OverUnder2.5
Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −1321 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • TonightTeammate out

    Jalen Williams: Out (leg)

    Under 2.5 without him: 20 of 35; with him: 13 of 16 (51 games as teammates)

  • TonightMinutes

    Last 5: 27 min · 2025–26: 17.5 (81 games) · up 54%

  • Teammate out

    Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)

    Under 2.5 without him: 5 of 10; with him: 28 of 41 (51 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Alex Caruso: Out (ankle)

    Under 2.5 without him: 6 of 10; with him: 27 of 41 (51 games as teammates)

Game log against Under 2.5

64%9 of 14L20 · Without Williams

Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 9 of 14 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

  1. at PHX, 2026-04-25: 0, hit, 12 min
  2. at PHX, 2026-04-27: 0, hit, 1 min
  3. vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 4, missed, 15 min
  4. vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 4, missed, 18 min
  5. at LAL, 2026-05-09: 1, hit, 10 min
  6. at LAL, 2026-05-11: 3, missed, 16 min
  7. vs SA, 2026-05-18: 1, hit, 18 min (not counted)
  8. vs SA, 2026-05-20: 3, missed, 26 min (not counted)
  9. at SA, 2026-05-22: 2, hit, 27 min
  10. at SA, 2026-05-24: 0, hit, 24 min
  11. vs SA, 2026-05-26: 3, missed, 33 min
  12. at SA, 2026-05-28: 2, hit, 27 min (not counted)
  13. vs SA, 2026-05-30: 2, hit, 23 min
  14. at SA, 2026-10-20: 6, missed, 22 min (not counted)
  15. vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 18 min (not counted)
  16. vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 1, hit, 21 min (not counted)
  17. vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 4, missed, 30 min
  18. at DAL, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 29 min
  19. at HOU, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 28 min
  20. at CLE, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 27 min
Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 3-pointers made.

Splits

Under 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L20

  • Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG

  • Jalen WilliamsGOut

  • Ajay MitchellG

  • Chet HolmgrenCOut

  • Alex CarusoGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

3-Pointers Made: 0 in 27 min, Nov 2 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against CLE on record

L20 · Without Williams · Under 2.5

Average
1.6
−0.9 vs line
Median
1.5
−1 vs line
Hit rate
64%
9 of 14
Price implies
57%
at −132
Books’ fair
53%
margin removed
Our chance
61%
estimate · fair −159

Research, not a pick. At −132 the price beats our fair −159, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Williams
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL20
−22001 book—6/14
−3101 book—7/14
+1001 book−1321 book9/14
+2551 book—11/14
+6501 book—14/14
+12001 book—14/14
+20001 book—14/14
Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
FanDuel2 min ago+100Best−132Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 4:14 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

−125 → −132 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%
Jared McCain's full game log and splits