Jared McCain

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · #3

CLE @ OKC · Tomorrow 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Rebounds, typical price −1564 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Over 2.5 without him: 16 of 35; with him: 3 of 16 (51 games as teammates)
TonightMinutes
Last 5: 27 min · 2025–26: 17.5 (81 games) · up 54%
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Over 2.5 without him: 6 of 10; with him: 13 of 41 (51 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Alex Caruso: Out (ankle)
Over 2.5 without him: 6 of 10; with him: 13 of 41 (51 games as teammates)

50%7 of 14L20 · Without Williams

Over 2.5 Rebounds cleared in 7 of 14 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

at PHX, 2026-04-25: 4, cleared, 12 min
at PHX, 2026-04-27: 0, missed, 1 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 2, missed, 15 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 0, missed, 18 min
at LAL, 2026-05-09: 0, missed, 10 min
at LAL, 2026-05-11: 2, missed, 16 min
vs SA, 2026-05-18: 2, missed, 18 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-20: 6, cleared, 26 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-22: 4, cleared, 27 min
at SA, 2026-05-24: 2, missed, 24 min
vs SA, 2026-05-26: 3, cleared, 33 min
at SA, 2026-05-28: 2, missed, 27 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-30: 1, missed, 23 min
at SA, 2026-10-20: 2, missed, 22 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 0, missed, 18 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 21 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 3, cleared, 30 min
at DAL, 2026-10-28: 4, cleared, 29 min
at HOU, 2026-10-31: 4, cleared, 28 min
at CLE, 2026-11-02: 9, cleared, 27 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–6.6 rebounds.

Splits

Over 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L20

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Ajay MitchellG
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Alex CarusoGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

Rebounds: 9 in 27 min, Nov 2 (away)

Over 2.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against CLE on record

L20 · Without Williams · Over 2.5

Average: 2.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 2.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 7 of 14
Price implies: 61%; at −156
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −129

Research, not a pick. At −155 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −129, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−4553 books	—	10/14
−1564 books	+1153 books	7/14
+1454 books	—	5/14
+8001 book	—	1/14

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bally Bet2 min ago	−155Best	—
betPARX4 min ago	−155Best	+115
BetRivers1 min ago	−157	+115
FanDuel1 min ago	−158	+118Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:13 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over −154 → −156 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Jared McCain's full game log and splits