Jared McCain

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · #3

CLE @ OKC · Tomorrow 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −1374 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Under 2.5 without him: 20 of 35; with him: 13 of 16 (51 games as teammates)
TonightMinutes
Last 5: 27 min · 2025–26: 17.5 (81 games) · up 54%
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Under 2.5 without him: 5 of 10; with him: 28 of 41 (51 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Alex Caruso: Out (ankle)
Under 2.5 without him: 6 of 10; with him: 27 of 41 (51 games as teammates)

64%9 of 14L20 · Without Williams

Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 9 of 14 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

at PHX, 2026-04-25: 0, hit, 12 min
at PHX, 2026-04-27: 0, hit, 1 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 4, missed, 15 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 4, missed, 18 min
at LAL, 2026-05-09: 1, hit, 10 min
at LAL, 2026-05-11: 3, missed, 16 min
vs SA, 2026-05-18: 1, hit, 18 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-20: 3, missed, 26 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-22: 2, hit, 27 min
at SA, 2026-05-24: 0, hit, 24 min
vs SA, 2026-05-26: 3, missed, 33 min
at SA, 2026-05-28: 2, hit, 27 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-30: 2, hit, 23 min
at SA, 2026-10-20: 6, missed, 22 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 18 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 1, hit, 21 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 4, missed, 30 min
at DAL, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 29 min
at HOU, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 28 min
at CLE, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 27 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 3-pointers made.

Splits

Under 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L20

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Ajay MitchellG
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Alex CarusoGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

3-Pointers Made: 0 in 27 min, Nov 2 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against CLE on record

L20 · Without Williams · Under 2.5

Average: 1.6; −0.9 vs line
Median: 1.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 64%; 9 of 14
Price implies: 58%; at −137
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −161

Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −161, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−22001 book	—	6/14
−2754 books	—	7/14
+1034 books	−1373 books	9/14
+2304 books	—	11/14
+4804 books	—	14/14
+12001 book	—	14/14
+22001 book	—	14/14

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−102	−130Best
betPARX3 min ago	+104Best	−137
BetRivers3 min ago	+102	−141
Bally Bet3 min ago	+104Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:53 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

−125 → −137 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Jared McCain's full game log and splits