Isaiah Hartenstein

Oklahoma City Thunder · C · #55

CLE @ OKC · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −2003 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

64%9 of 14L20 · Without Williams

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 9 of 14 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

at PHX, 2026-04-25: 1, cleared, 23 min
at PHX, 2026-04-27: 1, cleared, 29 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 1, cleared, 25 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 2, cleared, 27 min
at LAL, 2026-05-09: 1, cleared, 31 min
at LAL, 2026-05-11: 3, cleared, 28 min
vs SA, 2026-05-18: 1, cleared, 12 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-20: 0, missed, 27 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-22: 0, missed, 21 min
at SA, 2026-05-24: 0, missed, 18 min
vs SA, 2026-05-26: 0, missed, 31 min
at SA, 2026-05-28: 0, missed, 16 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-30: 1, cleared, 21 min
at SA, 2026-10-20: 1, cleared, 17 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 0, missed, 23 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 1, cleared, 27 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 0, missed, 26 min
at DAL, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 26 min
at HOU, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 25 min
at CLE, 2026-11-02: 2, cleared, 28 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 steals.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Over 0.5 without him: 30 of 47; with him: 26 of 41 (88 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs centers
CLE allow 1.4 steals a game to centers: 2nd most of 30
7 games
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 7 of 9; with him: 49 of 79 (88 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Over 0.5 without him: 2 of 5; with him: 54 of 83 (88 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L20

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Ajay MitchellG
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

Steals: 2 in 28 min, Nov 2 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against CLE on record

L20 · Without Williams · Over 0.5

Average: 1.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 64%; 9 of 14
Price implies: 67%; at −200
Books’ fair: 62%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −155

Research, not a pick. At −200 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −155, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	−2003 books	+1451 book	9/14
	+2203 books	—	4/14

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet6 min ago	−200Best	—
betPARX1 min ago	−200Best	+145Best
BetRivers1 min ago	−200Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:29 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Isaiah Hartenstein's full game log and splits