Isaiah Hartenstein

Oklahoma City Thunder · C · #55

Under 3.5 Assists, typical price −1754 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

4 of his 8 hits in the last 10 came with Jalen Williams playing; Williams is out tonight. Without him: Under 3.5 in 28 of 47.

TonightTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Under 3.5 without him: 28 of 47; with him: 33 of 41 (88 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Under 3.5 without him: 6 of 9; with him: 55 of 79 (88 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Alex Caruso: Out (ankle)
Under 3.5 without him: 9 of 12; with him: 52 of 76 (88 games as teammates)
Defense vs centers
CLE allow 2.4 assists a game to centers: 15th most of 30
7 games

64%9 of 14L20 · Without Williams

Under 3.5 Assists hit in 9 of 14 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

at PHX, 2026-04-25: 1, hit, 23 min
at PHX, 2026-04-27: 3, hit, 29 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 4, missed, 25 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 1, hit, 27 min
at LAL, 2026-05-09: 2, hit, 31 min
at LAL, 2026-05-11: 5, missed, 28 min
vs SA, 2026-05-18: 2, hit, 12 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-20: 3, hit, 27 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-22: 4, missed, 21 min
at SA, 2026-05-24: 3, hit, 18 min
vs SA, 2026-05-26: 4, missed, 31 min
at SA, 2026-05-28: 3, hit, 16 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-30: 0, hit, 21 min
at SA, 2026-10-20: 3, hit, 17 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 2, hit, 23 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 1, hit, 27 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 3, hit, 26 min
at DAL, 2026-10-28: 3, hit, 26 min
at HOU, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 25 min
at CLE, 2026-11-02: 4, missed, 28 min

Under hitMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1–5 assists.

Splits

Under 3.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 3.5 · L20

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Ajay MitchellG
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Alex CarusoGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

Assists: 4 in 28 min, Nov 2 (away)

Under 3.5 hit in 0 of 4 games against CLE on record

L20 · Without Williams · Under 3.5

Average: 2.6; −0.9 vs line
Median: 3; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 64%; 9 of 14
Price implies: 64%; at −175
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 65%; estimate · fair −187

Research, not a pick. At −168 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −187, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−5904 books	—	4/14
−1903 books	—	5/14
+1254 books	−1753 books	9/14
+2603 books	—	13/14
+5004 books	—	14/14
+17001 book	—	14/14

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
FanDuel4 min ago	+126Best	−168Best
betPARX5 min ago	+125	−175
BetRivers5 min ago	+125	−175
Bally Bet4 min ago	+125	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:15 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

−154 → −175 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Isaiah Hartenstein's full game log and splits