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Giannis Antetokounmpo

Miami Heat · F · #7

MIA @ LAC · Live
OverUnder29.5
Under 29.5 Points, typical price −1053 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 29.5

40%4 of 10L10

Under 29.5 Points hit in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).

  1. vs PHX, 2026-03-10: 22, hit, 32 min
  2. at MIA, 2026-03-12: 31, missed, 29 min
  3. vs IND, 2026-03-15: 31, missed, 23 min
  4. vs MIN, 2026-10-21: 35, missed, 30 min
  5. vs DET, 2026-10-23: 36, missed, 33 min
  6. at CHA, 2026-10-24: 14, hit, 25 min
  7. vs DAL, 2026-10-26: 29, hit, 39 min
  8. at ATL, 2026-10-28: 24, hit, 31 min
  9. vs IND, 2026-10-30: 31, missed, 31 min
  10. at LAL, 2026-11-02: 30, missed, 34 min
Under hitMissedThe 29.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 16.8–36.1 points.

What's different yesterday

Under 29.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • YesterdayDefense vs forwards

    LAC allow 34.6 points a game to forwards: 28th most of 30

    7 games

  • New team

    7 games with MIA; before that, MIL

    Under 29.5 with MIA: 3 of 7; his last 10 games before: 8 of 10

  • Minutes

    Last 5: 32 min · 2025–26: 28.9 (36 games)

  • Rest

    1 day off since Nov 2 at LAL

Splits

Under 29.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LAC in his last 10; Under 29.5 hit in 1 of 3 against LAC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 29.5 · L10

  • Bam AdebayoC

  • Pelle LarssonG

  • Davion MitchellG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Heat count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs LAC

Antetokounmpo didn't play the Dec 1, 2025 meeting; points the last time Antetokounmpo faced them: 23 (Feb 20, 2025)

Under 29.5 hit in 1 of 3 games against LAC on record

L10 · Under 29.5

Average
28.3
−1.2 vs line
Median
30.5
+1 vs line
Hit rate
40%
4 of 10
Price implies
51%
at −105
Books’ fair
48%
margin removed
Our chance
57%
estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −105 the price beats our fair −130, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−2302 books+1701 book3/10
−1723 books+1401 book3/10
−1502 books+1151 book3/10
−1253 books−1051 book4/10
−1054 books−1253 books5/10
+1253 books−1501 book8/10
+1352 books−1801 book8/10
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 29.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 29.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 29.5Under 29.5
Bovada13 hr ago−125−105Best
Bally Bet13 hr ago−113Best—
DraftKings13 hr ago−130—
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 10:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

29.5

30.5 → 29.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%
Giannis Antetokounmpo's full game log and splits

This page last updated 10:43 PM ET.