Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day

Miami Heat · F · #7

MIA @ LAC · Today 10:30 PM

Over Under6.5

Under 6.5 Assists, typical price −1623 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 6.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
7 games with MIA; before that, MIL
Under 6.5 with MIA: 4 of 7; his last 10 games before: 6 of 10
Defense vs forwards
LAC allow 6.7 assists a game to forwards: 24th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 32 min · 2025–26: 28.9 (36 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at LAL

60%6 of 10L10

Under 6.5 Assists hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

vs PHX, 2026-03-10: 3, hit, 32 min
at MIA, 2026-03-12: 3, hit, 29 min
vs IND, 2026-03-15: 8, missed, 23 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-21: 1, hit, 30 min
vs DET, 2026-10-23: 5, hit, 33 min
at CHA, 2026-10-24: 3, hit, 25 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-26: 11, missed, 39 min
at ATL, 2026-10-28: 3, hit, 31 min
vs IND, 2026-10-30: 10, missed, 31 min
at LAL, 2026-11-02: 7, missed, 34 min

Under hitMissedThe 6.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 3–9 assists.

Splits

Under 6.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LAC in his last 10; Under 6.5 hit in 2 of 3 against LAC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 6.5 · L10

Bam AdebayoC
Pelle LarssonG
Davion MitchellG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Heat count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs LAC

Antetokounmpo didn't play the Dec 1, 2025 meeting; assists the last time Antetokounmpo faced them: 4 (Feb 20, 2025)

Under 6.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against LAC on record

L10 · Under 6.5

Average: 5.4; −1.1 vs line
Median: 4; −2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 62%; at −162
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −147

Research, not a pick. At −144 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −147, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−9002 books	—	5/10
−3531 book	—	5/10
−1702 books	pick'em only	6/10
+1223 books	−1623 books	6/10
+1972 books	—	7/10
+3451 book	—	8/10
+6002 books	—	8/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 6.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 6.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 6.5	Under 6.5
DraftKings4 min ago	+109	−144Best
FanDuel3 min ago	+122Best	−162
Pinnacle4 min ago	+122Best	−162
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:04 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

6.5

No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Giannis Antetokounmpo's full game log and splits