Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
MIA @ LAC · Today 10:30 PM
What's different today
Under 30.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayDefense vs forwards
LAC allow 34.6 points a game to forwards: 28th most of 30
7 games
New team
7 games with MIA; before that, MIL
Under 30.5 with MIA: 4 of 7; his last 10 games before: 8 of 10
Minutes
Last 5: 32 min · 2025–26: 28.9 (36 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at LAL
Game log against Under 30.5
50%5 of 10L10
Under 30.5 Points hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 16.8–36.1 points.
Splits
Under 30.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against LAC in his last 10; Under 30.5 hit in 1 of 3 against LAC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 30.5 · L10Bam AdebayoC
Pelle LarssonG
Davion MitchellG
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Heat count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs LAC
Antetokounmpo didn't play the Dec 1, 2025 meeting; points the last time Antetokounmpo faced them: 23 (Feb 20, 2025)
Under 30.5 hit in 1 of 3 games against LAC on record
L10 · Under 30.5
- Average
- 28.3
- −2.2 vs line
- Median
- 30.5
- ±0 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −112
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 59%
- estimate · fair −146
Research, not a pick. At −112 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −146, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −18002 books | — | 1/10 | |
| −3902 books | — | 3/10 | |
| −1402 books | — | 4/10 | |
| −1183 books | −1123 books | 5/10 | |
| +1762 books | — | 8/10 | |
| +4002 books | — | 10/10 | |
| +9002 books | — | 10/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 30.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 30.5 | Under 30.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel3 min ago | −118 | −112Best |
| Pinnacle3 min ago | −118 | −112Best |
| DraftKings3 min ago | −110Best | −116 |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 12:54 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
30.5Under No move since first seen