Dyson Daniels

Atlanta Hawks · G · #5

WSH @ ATL · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Steals, typical price −1942 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Steals hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

vs NY, 2026-04-30: 1, hit, 15 min
at ORL, 2026-10-21: 5, missed, 35 min
at CHA, 2026-10-23: 7, missed, 23 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-24: 1, hit, 29 min
at HOU, 2026-10-26: 1, hit, 28 min
vs MIA, 2026-10-28: 3, missed, 28 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-29: 1, hit, 32 min
at NO, 2026-10-31: 3, missed, 27 min
at IND, 2026-11-02: 3, missed, 31 min
at WSH, 2026-11-04: 0, hit, 34 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–4 steals.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jock Landale: Out (hip)
Under 2.5 without him: 10 of 14; with him: 17 of 27 (41 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
WSH allow 3.9 steals a game to guards: 20th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30.4 min · 2026–27: 29.7 (9 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at WSH

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Jalen JohnsonFDay-To-Day
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG
CJ McCollumG
Jock LandaleCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Steals: 0 in 34 min, Nov 4 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 8 games against WSH on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 66%; at −194
Books’ fair: 62%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −149

Research, not a pick. At −190 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −149, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−14002 books	—	1/10
−2252 books	—	5/10
+1422 books	−1942 books	5/10
+3502 books	—	8/10
+8002 books	—	8/10
+17201 book	—	9/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings5 min ago	+142	−190Best
FanDuel3 min ago	+144Best	−194
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:56 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under: −205 → −194 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Dyson Daniels's full game log and splits