Dyson Daniels

Atlanta Hawks · G · #5

WSH @ ATL · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under12.5

Under 12.5 Points, typical price −1326 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Under 12.5 Points hit in 8 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

vs NY, 2026-04-30: 3, hit, 15 min
at ORL, 2026-10-21: 20, missed, 35 min
at CHA, 2026-10-23: 11, hit, 23 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-24: 18, missed, 29 min
at HOU, 2026-10-26: 4, hit, 28 min
vs MIA, 2026-10-28: 7, hit, 28 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-29: 4, hit, 32 min
at NO, 2026-10-31: 8, hit, 27 min
at IND, 2026-11-02: 6, hit, 31 min
at WSH, 2026-11-04: 8, hit, 34 min

Under hitMissedThe 12.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2.4–17.8 points.

What's different today

Under 12.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jock Landale: Out (hip)
Under 12.5 without him: 11 of 14; with him: 14 of 27 (41 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
WSH allow 49.4 points a game to guards: 27th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30.4 min · 2026–27: 29.7 (9 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at WSH

Splits

Under 12.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 12.5 · L10

Jalen JohnsonFDay-To-Day
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG
CJ McCollumG
Jock LandaleCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Points: 8 in 34 min, Nov 4 (away)

Under 12.5 hit in 6 of 8 games against WSH on record

L10 · Under 12.5

Average: 8.9; −3.6 vs line
Median: 7.5; −5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −132
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −161

Research, not a pick. At −125 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −161, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5604 books	—	5/10
−2655 books	—	7/10
−1394 books	—	8/10
−1036 books	−1325 books	8/10
+1283 books	—	8/10
+1692 books	—	8/10
+2153 books	—	8/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 12.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 12.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 12.5	Under 12.5
DraftKings15 min ago	−102	−125Best
betPARX6 min ago	−103	−132
BetRivers6 min ago	−103	−132
Pinnacle15 min ago	+100	−133
FanDuel4 min ago	+102Best	−136
Bally Bet15 min ago	−103	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

12.5

14.5 → 12.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Dyson Daniels's full game log and splits