Dyson Daniels

Atlanta Hawks · G · #5

ATL @ WSH · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under16.5

Under 16.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1142 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 16.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jock Landale: Out (hip)
Under 16.5 without him: 8 of 13; with him: 12 of 27 (40 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 29.2 min · 2026–27: 29.1 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at IND
3rd straight road game
Game lines
ATL −2.5 · total 232.5 (5 sportsbooks)
ATL's games this season closed at 232.9 on average (8 games)

70%7 of 10L10

Under 16.5 Pts+Ast hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

at NY, 2026-04-28: 22, missed, 25 min
vs NY, 2026-04-30: 3, hit, 15 min
at ORL, 2026-10-21: 23, missed, 35 min
at CHA, 2026-10-23: 15, hit, 23 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-24: 21, missed, 29 min
at HOU, 2026-10-26: 8, hit, 28 min
vs MIA, 2026-10-28: 14, hit, 28 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-29: 9, hit, 32 min
at NO, 2026-10-31: 11, hit, 27 min
at IND, 2026-11-02: 10, hit, 31 min

Under hitMissedThe 16.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 6.3–22.7 pts+ast.

Splits

Under 16.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Under 16.5 hit in 4 of 7 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 16.5 · L10

Jalen JohnsonFDay-To-Day
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG
CJ McCollumG
Jock LandaleCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Pts+Ast: 24 in 33 min, Feb 26 (home)

Under 16.5 hit in 4 of 7 games against WSH on record

L10 · Under 16.5

Average: 13.6; −2.9 vs line
Median: 12.5; −4 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −133

Research, not a pick. At −111 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −133, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−10801 book	—	3/10
−2051 book	—	6/10
−1182 books	−1142 books	7/10
+1711 book	—	7/10
+5321 book	—	10/10
+14801 book	—	10/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 16.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 16.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 16.5	Under 16.5
DraftKings1 min ago	−118	−111Best
FanDuel2 min ago	−114Best	−114
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:44 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

16.5

Under −108 → −114 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Dyson Daniels's full game log and splits