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Dyson Daniels

Atlanta Hawks · G · #5

ATL @ WSH · Tomorrow 7:00 PM
OverUnder2.5
Under 2.5 Steals, typical price −1622 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tomorrow

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Teammate out

    Jock Landale: Out (hip)

    Under 2.5 without him: 9 of 13; with him: 17 of 27 (40 games as teammates)

  • Defense vs guards

    WSH allow 3.7 steals a game to guards: 22nd most of 30

    7 games

  • Minutes

    Last 5: 29.2 min · 2026–27: 29.1 (8 games)

  • Rest

    1 day off since Nov 2 at IND

    3rd straight road game

Game log against Under 2.5

50%5 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Steals hit in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 6 on the road).

  1. at NY, 2026-04-28: 0, hit, 25 min
  2. vs NY, 2026-04-30: 1, hit, 15 min
  3. at ORL, 2026-10-21: 5, missed, 35 min
  4. at CHA, 2026-10-23: 7, missed, 23 min
  5. vs HOU, 2026-10-24: 1, hit, 29 min
  6. at HOU, 2026-10-26: 1, hit, 28 min
  7. vs MIA, 2026-10-28: 3, missed, 28 min
  8. vs CLE, 2026-10-29: 1, hit, 32 min
  9. at NO, 2026-10-31: 3, missed, 27 min
  10. at IND, 2026-11-02: 3, missed, 31 min
Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tomorrow's game: a typical game lands 1–4 steals.

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 3 of 7 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

  • Jalen JohnsonFDay-To-Day

  • Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG

  • CJ McCollumG

  • Jock LandaleCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tomorrow. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Steals: 5 in 33 min, Feb 26 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 3 of 7 games against WSH on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average
2.5
±0 vs line
Median
2
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10
Price implies
62%
at −162
Books’ fair
57%
margin removed
Our chance
57%
estimate · fair −132

Research, not a pick. At −152 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −132, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−18002 books—1/10
−2702 books—5/10
+1142 books−1622 books5/10
+2842 books—8/10
+6602 books—8/10
+13201 book—9/10
+23001 book—9/10
Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
DraftKings2 min ago+114−152Best
FanDuel1 min ago+122Best−162
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 11:54 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under −158 → −162 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%
Dyson Daniels's full game log and splits