Dyson Daniels

Atlanta Hawks · G · #5

ATL @ WSH · Tomorrow 7:00 PM

Over Under11.5

Under 11.5 Points, typical price −1272 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 11.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightDefense vs guards
WSH allow 44.4 points a game to guards: 28th most of 30
7 games
Teammate out
Jock Landale: Out (hip)
Under 11.5 without him: 9 of 13; with him: 12 of 27 (40 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 29.2 min · 2026–27: 29.1 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at IND
3rd straight road game

70%7 of 10L10

Under 11.5 Points hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

at NY, 2026-04-28: 17, missed, 25 min
vs NY, 2026-04-30: 3, hit, 15 min
at ORL, 2026-10-21: 20, missed, 35 min
at CHA, 2026-10-23: 11, hit, 23 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-24: 18, missed, 29 min
at HOU, 2026-10-26: 4, hit, 28 min
vs MIA, 2026-10-28: 7, hit, 28 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-29: 4, hit, 32 min
at NO, 2026-10-31: 8, hit, 27 min
at IND, 2026-11-02: 6, hit, 31 min

Under hitMissedThe 11.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 2.2–17.6 points.

Splits

Under 11.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Under 11.5 hit in 4 of 7 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 11.5 · L10

Jalen JohnsonFDay-To-Day
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG
CJ McCollumG
Jock LandaleCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Points: 13 in 33 min, Feb 26 (home)

Under 11.5 hit in 4 of 7 games against WSH on record

L10 · Under 11.5

Average: 9.8; −1.7 vs line
Median: 7.5; −4 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −127
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −142

Research, not a pick. At −125 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −142, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−9601 book	—	3/10
−3811 book	—	5/10
−1882 books	—	6/10
−1022 books	−1272 books	7/10
+2322 books	—	7/10
+4951 book	—	8/10
+8342 books	—	9/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 11.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 11.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 11.5	Under 11.5
DraftKings5 min ago	−102Best	−125Best
FanDuel4 min ago	−102Best	−130
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:49 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

11.5

−125 → −127 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Dyson Daniels's full game log and splits