Dyson Daniels

Atlanta Hawks · G · #5

ATL @ WSH · Tomorrow 7:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Under 5.5 Assists, typical price −1412 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jock Landale: Out (hip)
Under 5.5 without him: 7 of 13; with him: 19 of 27 (40 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
WSH allow 15.1 assists a game to guards: 18th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 29.2 min · 2026–27: 29.1 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at IND
3rd straight road game

90%9 of 10L10

Under 5.5 Assists hit in 9 of his last 10 games (6 of 6 on the road).

at NY, 2026-04-28: 5, hit, 25 min
vs NY, 2026-04-30: 0, hit, 15 min
at ORL, 2026-10-21: 3, hit, 35 min
at CHA, 2026-10-23: 4, hit, 23 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-24: 3, hit, 29 min
at HOU, 2026-10-26: 4, hit, 28 min
vs MIA, 2026-10-28: 7, missed, 28 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-29: 5, hit, 32 min
at NO, 2026-10-31: 3, hit, 27 min
at IND, 2026-11-02: 4, hit, 31 min

Under hitMissedThe 5.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 2–8 assists.

Splits

Under 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Under 5.5 hit in 4 of 7 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 5.5 · L10

Jalen JohnsonFDay-To-Day
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG
CJ McCollumG
Jock LandaleCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Assists: 11 in 33 min, Feb 26 (home)

Under 5.5 hit in 4 of 7 games against WSH on record

L10 · Under 5.5

Average: 3.8; −1.7 vs line
Median: 4; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 90%; 9 of 10
Price implies: 59%; at −141
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −159

Research, not a pick. At −140 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −159, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−9401 book	—	1/10
−4072 books	—	4/10
−1731 book	—	7/10
+1072 books	−1412 books	9/10
+1971 book	—	9/10
+3602 books	—	10/10
+6201 book	—	10/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
FanDuel1 min ago	+106	−140Best
DraftKings2 min ago	+108Best	−143
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:40 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

−144 → −141 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Dyson Daniels's full game log and splits