DeMar DeRozan

Denver Nuggets · G · #10

TOR @ DEN · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Reb+Ast, typical price −1213 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayMinutes
Last 5: 24.6 min · 2025–26: 31.3 (77 games) · down 21%
Teammate out
Spencer Jones: Out (hamstring)
Over 4.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
New team
6 games with DEN; before that, SAC
Over 4.5 with DEN: 4 of 6; his last 10 games before: 8 of 10
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs POR

70%7 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Reb+Ast cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at ATL, 2026-03-28: 7, cleared, 30 min
at TOR, 2026-04-01: 5, cleared, 35 min
vs NO, 2026-04-03: 7, cleared, 23 min
vs LAC, 2026-04-05: 0, missed, 10 min
at OKC, 2026-10-22: 2, missed, 28 min
vs NO, 2026-10-24: 6, cleared, 24 min
vs GS, 2026-10-26: 6, cleared, 29 min
at NO, 2026-10-28: 7, cleared, 26 min
at PHX, 2026-10-30: 6, cleared, 24 min
vs POR, 2026-11-02: 1, missed, 20 min

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1.5–10.6 reb+ast.

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 4.5 · L10

Nikola JokicC
Jamal MurrayG
Aaron GordonF
Spencer JonesFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Nuggets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

DeRozan didn't play the Mar 20 meeting; reb+ast the last time DeRozan faced them: 5 (Apr 1)

Over 4.5 hit in 5 of 6 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average: 4.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 6; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −121
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −151

Research, not a pick. At −120 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −151, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2451 book	+1801 book	7/10
−1213 books	−1093 books	7/10
+1501 book	−2001 book	6/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
Bovada16 min ago	−120Best	−110
DraftKings11 min ago	−121	−109
FanDuel5 min ago	−130	−102Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:13 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Over: −132 → −121 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

DeMar DeRozan's full game log and splits