DeMar DeRozan

Denver Nuggets · G · #10

TOR @ DEN · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Rebounds, typical price −1542 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayMinutes
Last 5: 24.6 min · 2025–26: 31.3 (77 games) · down 21%
Teammate out
Spencer Jones: Out (hamstring)
Under 2.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
New team
6 games with DEN; before that, SAC
Under 2.5 with DEN: 4 of 6; his last 10 games before: 5 of 10
Defense vs guards
TOR allow 16.4 rebounds a game to guards: 13th most of 30
7 games

70%7 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Rebounds hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at ATL, 2026-03-28: 4, missed, 30 min
at TOR, 2026-04-01: 1, hit, 35 min
vs NO, 2026-04-03: 2, hit, 23 min
vs LAC, 2026-04-05: 0, hit, 10 min
at OKC, 2026-10-22: 2, hit, 28 min
vs NO, 2026-10-24: 3, missed, 24 min
vs GS, 2026-10-26: 4, missed, 29 min
at NO, 2026-10-28: 2, hit, 26 min
at PHX, 2026-10-30: 1, hit, 24 min
vs POR, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 20 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–5.6 rebounds.

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Nikola JokicC
Jamal MurrayG
Aaron GordonF
Spencer JonesFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Nuggets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

DeRozan didn't play the Mar 20 meeting; rebounds the last time DeRozan faced them: 1 (Apr 1)

Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 6 games against TOR on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 1.9; −0.6 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −154
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −128

Research, not a pick. At −152 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −128, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
+1152 books	−1542 books	7/10
+2732 books	—	8/10
+6001 book	—	10/10
+12602 books	—	10/10
+22001 book	—	10/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings5 min ago	+115	−152Best
FanDuel5 min ago	+116Best	−154

Prices as of 12:24 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under −158 → −154 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

DeMar DeRozan's full game log and splits