DeMar DeRozan

Denver Nuggets · G · #10

TOR @ DEN · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Assists, typical price +1122 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayMinutes
Last 5: 24.6 min · 2025–26: 31.3 (77 games) · down 21%
Teammate out
Spencer Jones: Out (hamstring)
Over 2.5 without him: 3 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
New team
6 games with DEN; before that, SAC
Over 2.5 with DEN: 3 of 6; his last 10 games before: 8 of 10
Defense vs guards
TOR allow 16.3 assists a game to guards: 12th most of 30
7 games

60%6 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Assists cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

at ATL, 2026-03-28: 3, cleared, 30 min
at TOR, 2026-04-01: 4, cleared, 35 min
vs NO, 2026-04-03: 5, cleared, 23 min
vs LAC, 2026-04-05: 0, missed, 10 min
at OKC, 2026-10-22: 0, missed, 28 min
vs NO, 2026-10-24: 3, cleared, 24 min
vs GS, 2026-10-26: 2, missed, 29 min
at NO, 2026-10-28: 5, cleared, 26 min
at PHX, 2026-10-30: 5, cleared, 24 min
vs POR, 2026-11-02: 1, missed, 20 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–6 assists.

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L10

Nikola JokicC
Jamal MurrayG
Aaron GordonF
Spencer JonesFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Nuggets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

DeRozan didn't play the Mar 20 meeting; assists the last time DeRozan faced them: 4 (Apr 1)

Over 2.5 hit in 5 of 6 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 2.8; +0.3 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 47%; at +112
Books’ fair: 43%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −128

Research, not a pick. At +120 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −128, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2651 book	—	7/10
+1122 books	−1582 books	6/10
+2802 books	—	4/10
+6501 book	—	3/10
+11002 books	—	0/10
+24001 book	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings5 min ago	+120Best	−158
FanDuel4 min ago	+112	−148Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:40 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over +106 → +112 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

DeMar DeRozan's full game log and splits