De'Aaron Fox

San Antonio Spurs · G · #4

DAL @ SA · Today 9:30 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −2201 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs guards
DAL allow 6.0 steals a game to guards: 3rd most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30 min · 2025–26: 31.6 (94 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs UTAH
Game lines
SA −11.5 · total 227.5 (8 sportsbooks)
SA's games this season closed at 229.4 on average (7 games)

50%5 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 5 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

at NY, 2026-06-08: 1, hit, 37 min
at NY, 2026-06-10: 2, missed, 37 min
vs NY, 2026-06-13: 2, missed, 37 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-20: 1, hit, 32 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-23: 2, missed, 34 min
at DAL, 2026-10-24: 3, missed, 28 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 26 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-28: 3, missed, 39 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 35 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 22 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Victor WembanyamaF
Stephon CastleG
Dylan HarperG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Spurs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DAL

Steals: 3 in 28 min, Oct 24 (away)

Under 1.5 hit in 7 of 10 games against DAL on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 69%; at −220
Books’ fair: 64%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −164

Research, not a pick. At −220 the price is worse than our fair −164, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3101 book	—	2/10
+1621 book	−2201 book	5/10
+5201 book	—	8/10
+12801 book	—	10/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel3 min ago	+162Best	−220Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:14 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

De'Aaron Fox's full game log and splits