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De'Aaron Fox
UTAH @ SAJazz @ Spurs · Today 8:30 PM ET
The line
Under 1.5 Steals
Typical price −2036 sportsbooksbest −195
Game log
Under 1.5Under 1.5 Steals hit in 5 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 steals.
Home and away
L10 · Under 1.5Hometonight
67%
4 of 6
Away
25%
1 of 4
L10 · Under 1.5 Steals
- Average
- 1.5
- ±0 vs line
- Median
- 1.5
- ±0 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 67%
- −203, 6 sportsbooks
- Market’s fair
- 63%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 60%
- estimate · fair −151
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Research, not a pick. At −195 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −151, so it isn't worth it.
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX2 hr ago | +140 | −195Best |
| DraftKings2 hr ago | +151 | −203 |
| FanDuel2 hr ago | +164Best | −225 |
| Bally Bet2 hr ago | +140 | — |
| BetRivers2 hr ago | +140 | — |
| Bovada2 hr ago | +162 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:37 PM ET.
Every posted line
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −3126 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +1456 books | −2033 books | 5/10 | |
| +4406 books | — | 8/10 | |
| +12803 books | — | 10/10 | |
| +25001 book | — | 10/10 |
What moved our number
Pace+3%