De'Aaron Fox

San Antonio Spurs · G · #4

UTAH @ SAJazz @ Spurs · Mon, Nov 2 8:30 PM ET

The line

Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made

−1577 sportsbooksbest −150

Game log

Under 1.5

Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

vs NY: 2, missed
at NY: 0, hit
at NY: 4, missed
vs NY: 1, hit
vs OKC: 0, hit
vs HOU: 2, missed
at DAL: 2, missed
vs SAC: 2, missed
at UTAH: 1, hit
vs MIN: 0, hit

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 3-pointers made.

Home and away

L10 · Under 1.5

Hometonight

50%

3 of 6

Away

50%

2 of 4

L10 · Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made

Average: 1.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 61%; −157, 7 sportsbooks
Market’s fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −150

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Research, not a pick. At −150 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −150, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bovada4 hr ago	+115	−150Best
DraftKings4 hr ago	+116	−153
FanDuel4 hr ago	+122	−156
Pinnacle4 hr ago	+118	−158
betPARX4 hr ago	+130Best	−177
BetRivers4 hr ago	+130Best	−180
Bally Bet4 hr ago	+130Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price