De'Aaron Fox

San Antonio Spurs · G · #4

DAL @ SA · Tomorrow 9:30 PM

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Rebounds, typical price −1612 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs guards
DAL allow 14.1 rebounds a game to guards: 22nd most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30 min · 2025–26: 31.6 (94 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs UTAH
Game lines
SA −11.5 · total 226.5 (10 sportsbooks)
SA's games this season closed at 229.4 on average (7 games)

50%5 of 10L10

Over 3.5 Rebounds cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

at NY, 2026-06-08: 3, missed, 37 min
at NY, 2026-06-10: 5, cleared, 37 min
vs NY, 2026-06-13: 0, missed, 37 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-20: 7, cleared, 32 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-23: 4, cleared, 34 min
at DAL, 2026-10-24: 3, missed, 28 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-27: 4, cleared, 26 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-28: 3, missed, 39 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-31: 8, cleared, 35 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-02: 2, missed, 22 min

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0.9–7.5 rebounds.

Splits

Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 3.5 · L10

Victor WembanyamaF
Stephon CastleG
Dylan HarperG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Spurs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DAL

Rebounds: 3 in 28 min, Oct 24 (away)

Over 3.5 hit in 5 of 10 games against DAL on record

L10 · Over 3.5

Average: 3.9; +0.4 vs line
Median: 3.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 62%; at −161
Books’ fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −142

Research, not a pick. At −157 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −142, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3781 book	—	8/10
−1612 books	+1212 books	5/10
+1311 book	—	3/10
+2722 books	—	2/10
+4841 book	—	2/10
+9422 books	—	1/10
+15401 book	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
DraftKings5 min ago	−157Best	+119
FanDuel3 min ago	−166	+124Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Over −166 → −161 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

De'Aaron Fox's full game log and splits