Darius Acuff Jr.
SA @ SAC · Today 10:00 PMGame log against Over 9.5
63%5 of 8L8 · Without Raynaud
Over 9.5 Reb+Ast cleared in 5 of 8 games without Maxime Raynaud (his last 8 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 4.6–16.8 reb+ast.
What's different today
Over 9.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayTeammate out
Maxime Raynaud: Out (knee)
Over 9.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
TodayGame lines
SAC +15.5 · total 229.5 (7 sportsbooks): a big spread
SAC's games this season closed at 231.9 on average (8 games)
Teammate out
Keegan Murray: Out (ankle)
Over 9.5 without him: 5 of 6; with him: 0 of 2 (8 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 38 min · 2026–27: 37.3 (8 games)
Splits
Over 9.5 · L8 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 9.5 · L8Zach LaVineG
Maxime RaynaudCOut
Domantas SabonisF
Keegan MurrayFOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Kings count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs SA
Reb+Ast: 8 in 33 min, Oct 27 (away)
Over 9.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against SA on record
L8 · Without Raynaud · Over 9.5
- Average
- 10.6
- +1.1 vs line
- Median
- 10
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 63%
- 5 of 8
- Price implies
- 50%
- at +102
- Books’ fair
- 46%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 55%
- estimate · fair −120
Research, not a pick. At +110 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −120, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L8 · Without Raynaud| Line | Over | Under | L8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −18001 book | — | 8/8 | |
| −2602 books | +1901 book | 6/8 | |
| −1601 book | +1201 book | 5/8 | |
| +1026 books | −1364 books | 5/8 | |
| +2251 book | — | 2/8 | |
| +7501 book | — | 2/8 | |
| +20001 book | — | 1/8 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 9.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 9.5 | Under 9.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet10 min ago | +110Best | — |
| betPARX2 min ago | +110Best | −150 |
| BetRivers2 min ago | +110Best | — |
| FanDuel1 min ago | +102 | −136 |
| DraftKings10 min ago | +101 | −132 |
| Bovada10 min ago | +100 | −130Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 9:22 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
9.5Over: −114 → +102 since first seen


