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Daniel Gafford

Dallas Mavericks · F · #21

DAL @ SA · Today 9:30 PM
OverUnder9.5
Over 9.5 Points, typical price +1003 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 9.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • TodayMinutes

    Last 5: 26.2 min · 2025–26: 21.7 (55 games) · up 21%

  • Teammate out

    Max Christie: Out (hip)

    Over 9.5 without him: 0 of 4; with him: 25 of 58 (62 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)

    Over 9.5 without him: 23 of 58; with him: 2 of 4 (62 games as teammates)

  • Defense vs forwards

    SA allow 39.3 points a game to forwards: 23rd most of 30

    7 games

Game log against Over 9.5

30%3 of 10L10

Over 9.5 Points cleared in 3 of his last 10 games (0 of 4 on the road).

  1. at MIL, 2026-03-31: 7, missed, 11 min
  2. vs ORL, 2026-04-03: 7, missed, 20 min
  3. vs LAL, 2026-04-05: 7, missed, 20 min
  4. at HOU, 2026-10-21: 2, missed, 22 min
  5. at IND, 2026-10-23: 4, missed, 15 min
  6. vs SA, 2026-10-24: 12, cleared, 23 min
  7. at MIA, 2026-10-26: 8, missed, 26 min
  8. vs OKC, 2026-10-28: 7, missed, 27 min
  9. vs HOU, 2026-10-30: 18, cleared, 29 min
  10. vs SAC, 2026-11-02: 20, cleared, 26 min
ClearedMissedThe 9.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Splits

Over 9.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 9.5 · L10

  • Cooper FlaggF

  • Kyrie IrvingG

  • Naji MarshallF

  • Max ChristieGOut

  • Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SA

Points: 12 in 23 min, Oct 24 (home)

Over 9.5 hit in 6 of 8 games against SA on record

L10 · Over 9.5

Average
9.2
−0.3 vs line
Median
7
−2.5 vs line
Hit rate
30%
3 of 10
Price implies
50%
at +100
Books’ fair
47%
margin removed
Minutes
21.9
10 games · 21.7 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 9.5 47%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−4031 book—8/10
−1821 book—4/10
−1161 book−1101 book3/10
+1003 books−1322 books3/10
+1951 book—3/10
+4302 books—2/10
+10601 book—2/10
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 9.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 9.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 9.5Under 9.5
DraftKings2 min ago+107Best—
Pinnacle2 min ago+100−132
FanDuel2 min ago−102−130Best
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 1:04 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

9.5

−102 → +100 since first seen

Daniel Gafford's full game log and splits