Collin Gillespie

Phoenix Suns · G · #12

ORL @ PHX · Live

Over Under9.5

Under 9.5 Points, typical price −1503 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 9.5 Points hit in 7 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

at OKC, 2026-04-19: 8, hit, 23 min
at OKC, 2026-04-22: 7, hit, 29 min
vs OKC, 2026-04-25: 7, hit, 33 min
vs OKC, 2026-04-27: 20, missed, 29 min
at POR, 2026-10-21: 0, hit, 21 min
vs GS, 2026-10-24: 11, missed, 28 min
at OKC, 2026-10-26: 9, hit, 23 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-30: 16, missed, 33 min
at GS, 2026-11-02: 3, hit, 24 min
vs POR, 2026-11-04: 2, hit, 23 min

Under hitMissedThe 9.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–16.4 points.

What's different yesterday

Under 9.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayRest · back-to-back
Suns played the day before (vs POR): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Mark Williams: Out (shoulder)
Under 9.5 without him: 13 of 31; with him: 17 of 59 (90 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jordan Goodwin: Out (calf)
Under 9.5 without him: 6 of 15; with him: 24 of 75 (90 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
ORL allow 49.4 points a game to guards: 26th most of 30
7 games

Splits

Under 9.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ORL in his last 10; Under 9.5 hit in 0 of 2 against ORL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 9.5 · L10

Devin BookerG
Jalen GreenG
Dillon BrooksF
Mark WilliamsCOut
Jordan GoodwinGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Suns count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs ORL

Points: 11 in 27 min, Mar 31 (away)

Under 9.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against ORL on record

L10 · Under 9.5

Average: 8.3; −1.2 vs line
Median: 7.5; −2 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 60%; at −150
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −143

Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −143, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2501 book	—	3/10
−1983 books	—	5/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/10
+1023 books	−1502 books	7/10
+1361 book	—	7/10
+1743 books	—	8/10
+2401 book	—	8/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 9.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 9.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 9.5	Under 9.5
DraftKings10 hr ago	+102	−130Best
Pinnacle10 hr ago	+113Best	−150
Bally Bet10 hr ago	−108	—

Prices as of 9:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

9.5

Under: −114 → −150 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+0.6%

Rest−3%

Collin Gillespie's full game log and splits

This page last updated 9:13 PM ET.