Brandin Podziemski

Golden State Warriors · G · #2

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Over 5.5 Rebounds, typical price +1117 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%8 of 20L20 · Without Butler

Over 5.5 Rebounds cleared in 8 of 20 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).

at BOS, 2026-03-18: 6, cleared, 28 min
at DET, 2026-03-20: 6, cleared, 30 min
at ATL, 2026-03-21: 0, missed, 24 min
at DAL, 2026-03-23: 10, cleared, 40 min
vs BKN, 2026-03-25: 6, cleared, 35 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-27: 10, cleared, 33 min
at DEN, 2026-03-29: 5, missed, 32 min
vs SA, 2026-04-01: 6, cleared, 17 min
vs CLE, 2026-04-02: 4, missed, 35 min
vs HOU, 2026-04-05: 2, missed, 37 min
vs SAC, 2026-04-07: 1, missed, 30 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-09: 1, missed, 24 min
at SAC, 2026-04-10: 3, missed, 32 min
at LAC, 2026-04-12: 4, missed, 21 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 2, missed, 33 min
at DEN, 2026-10-26: 7, cleared, 33 min
at MIN, 2026-10-28: 5, missed, 32 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 5, missed, 33 min
vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 8, cleared, 37 min
vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 3, missed, 33 min

ClearedMissedThe 5.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

What's different today

Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 5.5 without him: 26 of 50; with him: 14 of 43 (93 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 5.5 without him: 10 of 20; with him: 8 of 15 (35 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 5.5 without him: 12 of 28; with him: 28 of 65 (93 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
MIA allow 18.1 rebounds a game to guards: 5th most of 30
8 games

Splits

Over 5.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 20; Over 5.5 cleared in 2 of 4 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 5.5 · L20

Stephen CurryG
Yaxel LendeborgF
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Rebounds: 6 in 30 min, Jan 19 (home)

Over 5.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against MIA on record

L20 · Without Butler · Over 5.5

Average: 4.7; −0.8 vs line
Median: 5; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 8 of 20
Price implies: 47%; at +111
Books’ fair: 45%; margin removed
Minutes: 31; 20 games · 28.5 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 5.5 45%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Butler

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−3355 books	—	13/20
−1886 books	+1601 book	11/20
pick'em only	pick'em only	8/20
+1117 books	−1486 books	8/20
+1866 books	−2201 book	4/20
+3405 books	—	3/20
+5405 books	—	2/20

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
Bally Bet4 min ago	+118Best	—
betPARXjust now	+118Best	−159
BetRivers1 min ago	+118Best	−159
Pinnacle4 min ago	+111	−148
FanDuel1 min ago	+104	−132
DraftKings4 min ago	+103	−136
Bovada4 min ago	−110	−120Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:57 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

Over: +130 → +111 since first seen

Brandin Podziemski's full game log and splits