Andrew Nembhard

Indiana Pacers · G · #2

Under 18.5 Points, typical price −1361 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 18.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

3 of his 8 hits in the last 10 came with Tyrese Haliburton playing; Haliburton is out today. Without him: Under 18.5 in 34 of 60.

TodayTeammate out
Tyrese Haliburton: Out (hamstring)
Under 18.5 without him: 34 of 60; with him: 20 of 21 (81 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Obi Toppin: Out (back)
Under 18.5 without him: 24 of 48; with him: 30 of 33 (81 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ivica Zubac: Out (ankle)
Under 18.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: 4 of 5 (13 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
MEM allow 55.3 points a game to guards: 18th most of 30
7 games

59%10 of 17L20 · Without Haliburton

Under 18.5 Points hit in 10 of 17 games without Tyrese Haliburton (his last 20 games).

at WSH, 2026-02-19: 5, hit, 22 min
vs DAL, 2026-02-22: 22, missed, 30 min
vs PHI, 2026-02-24: 23, missed, 28 min
vs CHA, 2026-02-26: 20, missed, 29 min
at LAC, 2026-03-04: 5, hit, 24 min
at LAL, 2026-03-06: 17, hit, 31 min
at POR, 2026-03-08: 14, hit, 28 min
vs PHX, 2026-03-12: 23, missed, 17 min
vs NY, 2026-03-13: 8, hit, 32 min
at SA, 2026-03-21: 25, missed, 28 min
at ORL, 2026-03-23: 13, hit, 35 min
vs LAL, 2026-03-25: 14, hit, 34 min
vs LAC, 2026-03-27: 13, hit, 32 min
vs MIA, 2026-03-29: 15, hit, 36 min
at NO, 2026-10-21: 18, hit, 34 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-10-23: 16, hit, 32 min (not counted)
at BKN, 2026-10-25: 14, hit, 30 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-10-28: 18, hit, 35 min
at MIA, 2026-10-30: 22, missed, 30 min
vs BKN, 2026-11-01: 23, missed, 35 min

Under hitMissedThe 18.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 9.2–25.4 points.

Splits

Under 18.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MEM in his last 20; Under 18.5 hit in 2 of 2 against MEM on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 18.5 · L20

Pascal SiakamF
Tyrese HaliburtonGOut
Aaron NesmithG
Obi ToppinFOut
Ivica ZubacCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pacers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MEM

Nembhard didn't play the Mar 1 meeting; points the last time Nembhard faced them: 11 (Feb 20, 2025)

Under 18.5 hit in 2 of 2 games against MEM on record

L20 · Without Haliburton · Under 18.5

Average: 16.5; −2 vs line
Median: 17; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 59%; 10 of 17
Price implies: 58%; at −136
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −133

Research, not a pick. At −136 the price is worse than our fair −133, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Haliburton

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−14001 book	—	3/17
−2601 book	—	7/17
pick'em only	pick'em only	9/17
+1021 book	−1361 book	10/17
+1281 book	—	10/17
+3501 book	—	16/17
+9001 book	—	17/17

Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 18.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 18.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 18.5	Under 18.5
FanDueljust now	+102Best	−136Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:57 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

18.5

17.5 → 18.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Andrew Nembhard's full game log and splits