Alex Caruso

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · #9

OKC @ MEM · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −2004 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

58%7 of 12L20 · Without Williams

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 7 of 12 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

vs PHX, 2026-04-19: 0, hit, 13 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-04-22: 3, missed, 23 min (not counted)
at PHX, 2026-04-25: 1, hit, 22 min
at PHX, 2026-04-27: 1, hit, 25 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 0, hit, 20 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 2, missed, 22 min
at LAL, 2026-05-09: 3, missed, 20 min
at LAL, 2026-05-11: 2, missed, 22 min
vs SA, 2026-05-18: 2, missed, 32 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-20: 1, hit, 25 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-22: 2, missed, 24 min
at SA, 2026-05-24: 0, hit, 14 min
vs SA, 2026-05-26: 3, missed, 28 min
at SA, 2026-05-28: 1, hit, 21 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-30: 0, hit, 39 min
at SA, 2026-10-20: 2, missed, 25 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 1, hit, 20 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 22 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 0, hit, 9 min
vs CLE, 2026-11-04: 0, hit, 20 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 steals.

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Under 1.5 without him: 23 of 43; with him: 31 of 51 (94 games as teammates)
TodayBack from an absence
Today's game is his 2nd back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 28 – Nov 2)
Under 1.5 since: 1 of 1
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 5 of 7; with him: 49 of 87 (94 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Under 1.5 without him: 3 of 3; with him: 51 of 91 (94 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MEM in his last 20; Under 1.5 hit in 5 of 10 against MEM on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L20

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Ajay MitchellG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MEM

Steals: 1 in 24 min, Jan 9 (away)

Under 1.5 hit in 5 of 10 games against MEM on record

L20 · Without Williams · Under 1.5

Average: 1.2; −0.3 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 58%; 7 of 12
Price implies: 67%; at −200
Books’ fair: 62%; margin removed
Our chance: 65%; estimate · fair −184

Research, not a pick. At −200 the price is worse than our fair −184, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−2954 books	—	5/12
+1454 books	−2001 book	7/12
+4104 books	—	10/12
+9601 book	—	12/12
+20001 book	—	12/12

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
betPARX4 min ago	+145Best	−200Best
Bally Bet5 min ago	+145Best	—
BetRivers4 min ago	+145Best	—
DraftKings5 min ago	+125	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:35 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under isn't priced at 1.5 right now.

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Alex Caruso's full game log and splits